Friday, August 5, 2016

Current Simulation Results

UPDATE October 25, 2016

This page will always contain my most recent simulation results. A shortcut to this page is available at www.tinyurl.com/ZimblogElection2016. Methodology for the simulation is here.

Note: The final list of battleground states for the 2016 presidential election is at http://jzimba.blogspot.com/2016/10/comparing-election-models.html. Everything below is left over from the October 17, 2016 update. I won't be updating this page again.

I did test my process for converting poll data into probability; it agreed fairly closely with both PEC and FiveThirtyEight, and aggregating the recent state-by-state poll data was a lot of work. So from now on, I will just piggyback on the poll aggregation labors of others. (I'm generally using PEC probabilities because those are stored online in a .csv file that I can extract with one keystroke; using FiveThirtyEight probabilities would require me to click through dozens of pages and type the data by hand.)

Now that the state-by-state probabilities are being derived from poll data, I have started including a table of battleground states. These are selected on the basis of high need and low probability, for both parties simultaneously.


Most recent distribution of outcomes

















Most recent battleground list

Probabilities from PEC

Battleground (EV) D Participation D Win Prob. R Participation R Win Prob.
Florida (29) 87.3% 0.87 96.7% 0.13
Ohio (18) 81% 0.81 82.6% 0.19
Wisconsin (10) 87.1% 0.87 46.7% 0.13
Nevada (6) 81.1% 0.81 43.5% 0.19
Mon 17 Oct 2016


Detailed state-by-state results

Probabilities from PEC

State (EV) D Participation D Win Prob. R Participation R Win Prob.
Alabama (9) 0% 0 100% 1
Alaska (3) 12.9% 0.13 85.9% 0.87
Arizona (11) 4% 0.04 100% 0.96
Arkansas (6) 0% 0 100% 1
California (55) 100% 1 0% 0
Colorado (9) 92.2% 0.92 35.9% 0.08
Connecticut (7) 100% 1 0% 0
District Of Columbia (3) 100% 1 0% 0
Delaware (3) 100% 1 0% 0
Florida (29) 87.3% 0.87 96.7% 0.13
Georgia (16) 13.1% 0.13 100% 0.87
Hawaii (4) 100% 1 0% 0
Idaho (4) 0% 0 100% 1
Illinois (20) 100% 1 0% 0
Indiana (11) 0% 0 100% 1
Iowa (6) 27.9% 0.28 90.2% 0.72
Kansas (6) 0% 0 100% 1
Kentucky (8) 0% 0 100% 1
Louisiana (8) 0% 0 100% 1
Maine (2) 100% 1 0% 0
MaineCD1 (1) 100% 1 0% 0
MaineCD2 (1) 100% 1 0% 0
Maryland (10) 100% 1 0% 0
Massachusetts (11) 100% 1 0% 0
Michigan (16) 99% 0.99 19.6% 0.01
Minnesota (10) 96.1% 0.96 16.3% 0.04
Mississippi (6) 0% 0 100% 1
Missouri (10) 4.1% 0.04 100% 0.96
Montana (3) 0% 0 100% 1
Nebraska (2) 0% 0 100% 1
NebraskaCD1 (1) 0% 0 100% 1
NebraskaCD2 (1) 0% 0 100% 1
NebraskaCD3 (1) 0% 0 100% 1
Nevada (6) 81.1% 0.81 43.5% 0.19
New Hampshire (4) 92.1% 0.92 18.5% 0.08
New Jersey (14) 100% 1 0% 0
New Mexico (5) 100% 1 0% 0
New York (29) 100% 1 0% 0
North Carolina (15) 61.2% 0.61 82.6% 0.39
North Dakota (3) 0% 0 100% 1
Ohio (18) 81% 0.81 82.6% 0.19
Oklahoma (7) 0% 0 100% 1
Oregon (7) 100% 1 0% 0
Pennsylvania (20) 98% 0.98 40.2% 0.02
Rhode Island (4) 100% 1 0% 0
South Carolina (9) 13.2% 0.13 96.7% 0.87
South Dakota (3) 0% 0 100% 1
Tennessee (11) 0% 0 100% 1
Texas (38) 0% 0 100% 1
Utah (6) 0% 0 100% 1
Vermont (3) 100% 1 0% 0
Virginia (13) 100% 1 0% 0
Washington (12) 100% 1 0% 0
West Virginia (5) 0% 0 100% 1
Wisconsin (10) 87.1% 0.87 46.7% 0.13
Wyoming (3) 0% 0 100% 1
Mon 17 Oct 2016



Cumulative Animation of Simulation Results



video








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