Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Sam Wang

Tonight Donald Trump appears to have locked up the Republican nomination. If you read Sam Wang, this news has been a long time coming. Here's what the Bayesian analyst neuroscientist said back in February:
...it would take a seismic event to change the trajectory for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Media figures are pressured to fill a daily “news hole.” I am not under this pressure. Since I don’t perceive the coming months as being all that suspenseful, I’m tempted to sign off on Presidential coverage until June!
...My guess is that it’s time to get used to these two particular faces between now and November.
This was back when Rubio was still competing for the nomination. I have long believed that Trump and Clinton would become the nominees, and that isn't because of my own perspicacity—it's because, as a Bayesian myself, my practice is basically to decide to believe whatever it is that Sam at the time believes, and to believe in it just as strongly or as weakly as he does.

Update 5/7/2016: Quelle horreur: Sam says he's a closet frequentist! Well, that's OK, we all are sometimes. My toy model of the Senate race from yesterday is just frequencies too.

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