Sunday, September 13, 2015

Are Murder Rates Spiking? Cont'd

I've finally seen some pushback against the New York Times article "Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. Cities." (Previous post on this here.)

Based on a larger sample of cities, FiveThirtyEight concludes that "Scare Headlines Exaggerated the U.S. Crime Wave."

(However, they compiled the same kind of one-year data the Times showed....)

Wonkblog also pushed back on the Times's overall thesis. And to Wonkblog's credit, when they dug deeper and argued that murder rates are indeed spiking in Baltimore, St. Louis, and Milwaukee, they didn't base their reasoning on one-year data; instead they did the necessary legwork to compile a historical trend:


At a glance, the bumps for these three cities appear significant.

The Wonkblog article also includes other interesting plots along with discussion and interviews with experts.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I don't think it's an anomaly. You have to look at the cities and discern the racial makeup and correlate that with the anti-police / leftist movement that has stirred up tensions between these communities and their police departments. Whenever you have bad publicity and a loss of trust in the police, you can find rampant crime, officers responding only to calls rather than proactively working and increased violent crime. We had years of rebuilding public trust destroyed in the last 3 years by people who make their living riling up the poor to make a profit and get their 30th year of fame. Don't look to the people, look to those who profit from chaos. You don't have to pick a bad guy for the blame, there is enough to go around from police incompetence and corruption to politicians stirring the pot and a Gov't that thrives on lies and deception.